"She was executed by the Taliban"

In this post at Counterterrorism blog, Walid Phares argues that they "executed [Bhutto] to pre-empt her future war of ideas." I am beginning to agree.

The prospect of the January elections would be good for all parties. The president would be proving that his institutions are solidly democratic, thus legitimizing his own office. The opposition would gain the seats it needed to access the cabinet or become powerbrokers at the assembly. Mrs. Bhutto's Pakistan Peoples Party was projected to be the largest bloc, and through a coalition in parliament, she was to become the next prime minister of this powerful Muslim country. That is precisely why she was murdered.

Indeed, the greatest losers in the upcoming elections, and in any democratic elections mobilizing large and experienced secular forces, would be the Islamists. Their six-party coalition achieved legislative power because of the absence of the secular and democratic forces. Now that Mr. Musharraf isn't in love with the jihadi forces anymore, several assassination attempts later; and after the seculars saw with their naked eyes what the fundamentalists were preparing for the country, the slice of Islamist vote was projected to shrink.

Despite the inconsistencies in reporting how she was killed and Musharraf's unwillingness to provide her true security, I don't see how Musharraf really gains from Bhutto's death. It seems to me that he needed her. With her gone he has lost a government coalition partner who would bring a measure of legitimacy that was lost after the judicial dismissals and the declaration of emergency rule. Also, Bhutto was probably the only mainstream candidate ready to back a Musharraf counter-insurgency campaign against the Taliban and al-Qaeda elements in the FATA.

Cui bono? Musharraf, says Barnett

The Zen master sees Musharraf as the winner from this catastrophic event:

[T]his basically means there is no alternative to Musharraf, since Sharif is technically ruled out from running due to legal problems.

Does emergency rule return? Maybe. Definitely see election postponed.

Given our desire to plus-up the effort in Afghanistan in 2008 and press southward as much as possible, the more secure Musharraf seems, the better for us.

Does the assassination make him look more vulnerable? Certainly not against the liberal left (such as it remains now that Bhutto is gone). Against the radical right, his case for continued rule is strengthened--theoretically...

Then again, Pakistan is a strange place that defies a lot of assumptions.

Bhutto's Death

This reeks of al-Qaeda. Even if it was with the assistance of the ISI and the willful negligence of Musharraf in not providing Bhutto with proper protection. But, ultimately, cui bono?

Musharraf?
Depends on whether he can contain the outrage and spin it to his advantage. But it bears keeping in mind that the one political leader that could legitimate his sham re-election, provide him with a large enough political ally to actually go after the radicals, and insure that American money would keep on flowing is now dead.

al-Qaeda/Taliban?
If this destabilizes the country further then of course the answer is yes. Not to mention the bragging rights associated with murdering a pro-western, secularized, liberal, WOMAN...aka...all that is unholy and evil to an Islamist radical.

The U.S.?
Maybe. If we can get Musharaff to use this as a pretext for really dealing with the the Taliban and the AQ presence in the FATA.


Of course we could just go with the people that have said they did it...

From TPM:

[A]n Italian news agency reported receiving a claim of responsibility from al-Qaeda's Afghanistan commander:

A spokesperson for the al-Qaeda terrorist network has claimed responsibility for the death on Thursday of former Pakistani prime minister Benazir Bhutto.

“We terminated the most precious American asset which vowed to defeat [the] mujahadeen,” Al-Qaeda’s commander and main spokesperson Mustafa Abu Al-Yazid told Adnkronos International (AKI) in a phone call from an unknown location, speaking in faltering English.

Welcome

Welcome to my new blog "Shrink the Gap." This seemingly odd name is drawn from the writings of author, blogger, and all around geo-political genius Thomas P.M. Barnett. For those who don't know Barnett, he is the author of The Pentagon's New Map, Blueprint for Action, and a frequent contributor to Esquire. Barnett provides a unique and compelling master-narrative for the emerging global economic/political order. Barnett's organizing principle is that disconnectedness from the world economy breeds poverty, war, and despotism. Barnett argues that only when we shrink the number of non-integrated countries in the world (i.e. The Gap) will we see a lessening of global conflict and disorder.

Map of the Gap